Nber dating committee
CAMBRIDGE, October 25 -- NBER's Committee on Business Cycle Dating met today to review developments in the U. The performance of the economy in the third quarter confirmed the Committee's earlier caution.
At its previous meeting in July, the Committee decided to wait until data for the third quarter became available before making a judgement of whether a business cycle peak had occurred in early 1979.
Real gross national product has been roughly stationary, while under normal conditions it would have grown at an annual rate of about 3 percent.
Industrial production and employment have actually declined in a substantial fraction of industries.
A variety of measures of real activity grew sharply from the second to the third quarter.
These included real gross national product and retail sales adjusted for price increases.
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In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
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Although subject to a common monetary policy since 1999, they even now have heterogeneous institutions and policies.
Moreover, European statistics are of uneven quality, long time series are not available, and data definitions differ across countries and sources.